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Development and internal validation of a multivariable model to predict perinatal death in pregnancy hypertension.

TitleDevelopment and internal validation of a multivariable model to predict perinatal death in pregnancy hypertension.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2015
AuthorsPayne, BA, Groen, H, Ukah, V, Ansermino, JM, Bhutta, ZA, Grobman, W, Hall, D, Hutcheon, J, Magee, LA, von Dadelszen, P
Corporate AuthorsminiPIERS working group
JournalPregnancy Hypertens
Volume5
Issue4
Pagination315-21
Date Published2015 Oct
ISSN2210-7797
KeywordsAdult, Canada, Female, HELLP Syndrome, Humans, Hypertension, Pregnancy-Induced, Infant, Newborn, Perinatal Death, PIERS, Pre-Eclampsia, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Outcome, Pregnancy Trimester, Third, Premature Birth, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stillbirth
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a prognostic model for perinatal death that could guide community-based antenatal care of women with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) in low-resourced settings as part of a mobile health application.

STUDY DESIGN: Using data from 1688 women (110 (6.5%) perinatal deaths) admitted to hospital after 32weeks gestation with a HDP from five low-resourced countries in the miniPIERS prospective cohort, a logistic regression model to predict perinatal death was developed and internally validated. Model discrimination, calibration, and classification accuracy were assessed and compared with use of gestational age alone to determine prognosis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Stillbirth or neonatal death before hospital discharge.

RESULTS: The final model included maternal age; a count of symptoms (0, 1 or ⩾2); and dipstick proteinuria. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75 [95% CI 0.71-0.80]. The model correctly identified 42/110 (38.2%) additional cases as high-risk (probability >15%) of perinatal death compared with use of only gestational age <34weeks at assessment with increased sensitivity (48.6% vs. 23.8%) and similar specificity (86.6% vs. 90.0%).

CONCLUSION: Using simple, routinely collected measures during antenatal care, we can identify women with a HDP who are at increased risk of perinatal death and who would benefit from transfer to facility-based care. This model requires external validation and assessment in an implementation study to confirm performance.

DOI10.1016/j.preghy.2015.08.006
Alternate JournalPregnancy Hypertens
Citation Key472
PubMed ID26597747